Ngaphambi kwe-AI, le mibono emithathu yashintsha ezezimali

Ubuhlakani bokwenziwa bushintsha ezezimali ngokushesha, kodwa abufikanga endaweni engenamibono eyabandulela.

Kudala ngaphambi kokuba ama-algorithm akwazi ukuhlola izikweletu, ukwenza ukuhweba, ukuthola ukukhwabanisa noma ukukhiqiza ukuhlaziywa kwezimali, abacwaningi base bezama ukuphendula imibuzo emithathu enzima:

Kufanele silinganise kanjani ubungozi nembuyiselo?

Kufanele kubekwe kanjani intengo yokungaqiniseki kwezezimali?

Kungani abantu abahlakaniphile bephindaphinda benza izinqumo zezimali ezingenangqondo?

Esihlokweni sami sokuqala, Umthelela we-AI ezinqumweni zezimali, ngabheka indlela i-AI eba ngayo injini ezenzakalelayo yokwenza izinqumo komunye wemikhakha elawulwa kakhulu emhlabeni.

Kodwa ukuze siqonde ukuthi i-AI ingaziyisa kuphi ezezimali, kuyasiza ukubuyela kweminye imibono eyaziletha lapho zikhona namuhla.

UMarkowitz nezibalo zobungozi

Ngo-1952, uHarry Markowitz washicilela i-Portfolio Selection, iphepha locwaningo elasiza ukuqala ezezimali zesimanje ezincike ezibalweni.

Umbono walo oyinhloko manje uzwakala sengathi usobala: abatshalizimali akufanele bahlole impahla ngokwembuyiselo yayo ngayinye kuphela. Kufanele babheke ukuthi ihlobana kanjani nakho konke okunye ephothifoliyweni.

Lokho kwasusa ingxoxo ekukhetheni ukutshalwa kwezimali okuhle kwayisa ekwakheni inhlanganisela ephumelelayo yokutshalwa kwezimali.

Namuhla, i-AI ingahlaziya izinkulungwane zezimpahla, ukuhlobana, izimo nezimpawu zemakethe ngesivinini uMarkowitz ayengeke asicabange. Kodwa umbuzo oyisisekelo usafana: bungakanani ubungozi esibamukelayo ngembuyiselo esiyilindele?

I-AI isheshisa ukubala. Ayinqumi ukuthi izisekelo ezicatshangwayo zalokho kubala zinengqondo yini.

UBlack, uScholes nentengo yokungaqiniseki

Ngo-1973, uFischer Black noMyron Scholes bashicilela i-The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities.

Imodeli ye-Black-Scholes yanikeza ezezimali indlela ehlelekile yokulinganisa inani lama-option, okuyizinkontileka ezinikeza ilungelo lokuthenga noma lokuthengisa. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, yabonisa ukuthi ukungaqiniseki ngokwakho kungamelwa ngemodeli futhi kubekelwe intengo.

I-AI yesimanje ikuyisa kude kakhulu lokhu. Amamodeli angacubungula ukunyakaza kwemakethe, izindaba, imizwa yemakethe, ukuguquguquka namanani edatha evela kweminye imithombo cishe ngokushesha.

Lelo khono linamandla, kodwa liletha ubungozi obujwayelekile: umphumela oyinkimbinkimbi ungabonakala uqinisekile kakhulu kunalokho oyikho ngempela.

Imodeli ingakhipha inombolo enembile kodwa ibe isancike kudatha engaphelele, ekuhlobaneni okungazinzi, noma ezisekelweni ezicatshangwayo ezingasebenzi ezimweni zemakethe ezingajwayelekile.

Ukunemba nokuqiniseka akuyona into efanayo.

UKahneman nomenzi wezinqumo ezingenangqondo

I-Thinking, Fast and Slow kaDaniel Kahneman yengeza enye ingxenye ebalulekile kulo mfanekiso.

Izinqumo zezimali azenziwa abantu abahlale becabanga ngokuphelele nangendlela enengqondo. Zithonywa ukuzethemba ngokweqile, ukugwema ukulahlekelwa, ukubambelela olwazini lokuqala, ukujwayela, ukwesaba nezinye izinhlobo eziningi zokuchema.

I-AI ivame ukwethulwa njengendlela yokususa lobu buthakathaka ekwenzeni izinqumo. Kwezinye izimo, ingakwenza.

Kodwa izinhlelo ze-AI zifunda kudatha eyenziwe ngabantu, zisebenza ngokwezinhloso ezibekwe ngabantu, bese zethula imiphumela kubantu abenza izinqumo. Ukuchema akuvele kunyamalale ngoba kusetshenziswa imodeli. Kunalokho kungase kungabonakali kalula futhi kube lula ukukusabalalisa ngezinga elikhulu.

Imibuzo yakudala, amathuluzi anamandla ngokwengeziwe

UMarkowitz wasisiza ukucabanga ngobungozi. UBlack noScholes basisiza ukucabanga ngokungaqiniseki. UKahneman wasisiza ukuqonda umuntu owenza isinqumo.

I-AI manje isempambanweni yakho konke lokhu kokuthathu.

Ingathuthukisa amaphothifoliyo, ibeke intengo yamathuluzi ezezimali ayinkimbinkimbi, ithole amaphethini okuziphatha futhi isekele izinqumo ngezinga elikhulu kakhulu. Kodwa iphinde izuze izisekelo ezicatshangwayo, imikhawulo nezindawo ezinganakwa ezingemuva kwalezo zinqumo.

Yingakho ikusasa le-AI kwezezimali lingeke liqondwe ngokufunda i-AI kuphela.

Ngezinye izikhathi, indlela engcono kakhulu yokuqonda okuzayo ukubuyela emibonweni eyaqala ingxoxo.